Can you take the complex global trends of the last 30 years and boil them down into one blanket term like “de-globalization?” Maybe. But John Waldron sees a more nuanced picture, one shifting alongside the evolving U.S.-China relationship

“Until very recently, the 30-year play, whether you were a financial company like ours or a consumer business, was to build low-cost manufacturing capacity in China to serve global operations,” he said.

China’s admission to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001 made that cross-border collaboration easier. In addition to benefits like reduced tariffs, WTO members, including the U.S., hoped China’s membership would help accelerate reforms in the country and bring it closer to the West, both politically and economically.

In the 20+ years that followed, these goals did not materialize and extenuating circumstances quickly complicated the picture. Supply chain bottlenecks, triggered and exacerbated by the COVID pandemic, led countries to realize the vulnerabilities of being wholly dependent on international production and manufacturing. Political figures gained popularity by tapping into nationalism trends further fueled by the pandemic.

However, that does not mean globalization is undergoing a widespread reversal. John believes that ship has sailed. Even with U.S. companies shifting supply chains and shoring up domestic manufacturing to build more resiliency, costs can be prohibitive. 

“It’s still too expensive to move many of those manufacturing jobs back to the U.S. And companies aren’t going to do that en masse,” John said.

For John, globalization is more in transition than in retreat.

“I think words like de-globalization are dangerous words. It's too simple. We're in a much more nuanced place.”

Read all the takeaways from In the Lead here.