Stephanie Kenary from the Portfolio Management Group discusses a number of investment themes at the outset of the fourth quarter of 2024.
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Investment Strategy Group (“ISG”). The Investment Strategy Group, part of the Asset & Wealth Management business (“AWM”) of GS, focuses on asset allocation strategy formation and market analysis for GS Wealth Management. Any information that references ISG, including their model portfolios, represents the views of ISG, is not financial research and is not a product of GS Global Investment Research and may vary significantly from views expressed by individual portfolio management teams within AWM, or other groups at GS. ISG Model Portfolios are provided for illustrative purposes only. Your actual asset allocation may look significantly different based on your particular circumstances and risk tolerance. Model performance calculations assume that (1) each asset class was owned in accordance with the recommended weight; (2) all tactical tilts were tracked at the time the recommendation was made; and (3) the portfolios are rebalanced at the end of every quarter. Model performance is calculated using the daily returns (actual or interpolated) of indices that ISG believes are representative of the asset classes included in the model. Results shown reflect the total return but generally do not consider any investment management fees, commissions or other transaction expenses, which would reduce returns. Hedge fund indices and data from Cambridge Associates are net of manager fees. The results shown reflect the reinvestment of dividends and other earnings. All returns are pre-tax and are not adjusted for inflation. Additional information about the model portfolio performance calculations is available upon request.
Investment Risks and Information. GS&Co. offers a range of products that you should carefully consider for their unique terms and risks prior to investing to ensure they are appropriate for your individual circumstances. Below are descriptions of major risks for our more complex products; please review the offering documents and product prospectuses for particular products, as well as additional information about the nature and risks of these and other products in GS&Co.’s ADV Part 2A Brochure and PWM Relationship Guide. Investing involves the risk of loss.
§ Alternative Investments (“AI”). AIs may involve a substantial degree of risk, including the risk of total loss of capital, use of leverage, lack of liquidity, and volatility of returns. Private equity, private credit, private real estate, hedge funds, and AI investments structured as private investment funds are subject to less regulation than other types of pooled vehicles. Review the Offering Memorandum, Subscription Agreement, and any other applicable offering documents for risks, potential conflicts of interest, terms and conditions and other disclosures.
§ Commodities. The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial due, but not limited, to lack of liquidity, volatile political, market, and economic conditions, and abrupt changes in price which may result from unpredictable factors including weather, labor strikes, inflation, foreign exchange rates, etc. Due to the use of leverage, a small move against your position may result in a loss that may be larger than your initial deposit.
§ Currencies. Currency exchange rates can be extremely volatile, particularly during times of political or economic uncertainty. There is a risk of loss when an investor has exposure to foreign currency or holds foreign currency traded investments.
§ Digital Assets / Cryptocurrency. Digital assets regulation is still developing across all jurisdictions and governments may in the future restrict the use and exchange of any or all digital assets. Digital assets are generally not backed nor supported by any government or central bank, are not FDIC insured and do not have the same protections that U.S. or other countries’ bank deposits may have and are more volatile than traditional currencies. Transacting in digital assets carries the risk of market manipulation and cybersecurity failures such as the risk of hacking, theft, programming bugs, and accidental loss. Differing forms of digital assets may carry different risks. The volatility and unpredictability of the price of digital assets may lead to significant and immediate losses.
§ Over-the-Counter (“OTC”) Derivatives. OTC derivatives are illiquid as there is no public market. The price or valuation of each OTC derivative transaction is individually negotiated between GS&Co. and each counterparty, and GS&Co. does not represent or warrant that the prices for which it offers OTC derivative transactions are the best prices available. You may therefore have trouble establishing whether the price you have been offered for a particular OTC derivative transaction is fair. OTC derivatives may trade at a value that is different from the level inferred from interest rates, dividends, and the underlier due to factors including expectations of future levels of interest rates and dividends, and the volatility of the underlier prior to maturity. The market price of the OTC derivative transaction may be influenced by many unpredictable factors, including economic conditions, GS creditworthiness, the value of any underliers, and certain actions taken by GS. Because GS may be obligated to make substantial payments to you as a condition of an OTC derivative transaction, you must evaluate the credit risk of doing business with GS. Depending on the type of transaction, your counterparty may be GS&Co. or another GS affiliate. Counterparties may be subject to different rules depending on whether they are a registered U.S. broker dealer. OTC derivative transactions with GS affiliates cannot be assigned or transferred without GS’s prior written consent. The provisions of an OTC derivative transaction may allow for early termination and, in such cases, either you or GS may be required to make a potentially significant termination payment depending upon whether the OTC derivative transaction is in-the-money at the time of termination. You should carefully review the Master Agreement, including any related schedules, credit support documents, addenda, and exhibits. You may be requested to post margin or collateral at levels consistent with the internal policies of GS to support written OTC derivatives.
§ Emerging Markets and Growth Markets. Emerging markets and growth markets investments involve certain considerations, including political and economic conditions, the potential difficulty of repatriating funds or enforcing contractual or other legal rights, and the small size of the securities markets in such countries coupled with a low volume of trading, resulting in potential lack of liquidity and price volatility.
§ Non-US Securities. Non-US securities investments are subject to differing regulations, less public information, less liquidity, and greater volatility in the countries of domicile of the security issuers and/or the jurisdiction in which these securities are traded. In addition, investors in securities such as ADRs/GDRs, whose values are influenced by foreign currencies, effectively assume currency risk.
§ Options. The purchase of options can result in the loss of an entire investment and the risk of uncovered options is potentially unlimited. You must read and understand the current Options Disclosure Document before entering into any options transactions. The booklet entitled Characteristics and Risk of Standardized Options can be obtained from your PWM team or at http://www.theocc.com/components/docs/riskstoc.pdf. A secondary market may not be available for all options. Transaction costs may be significant in option strategies that require multiple purchases and sales of options, such as spreads. Supporting documentation for any comparisons, recommendations, statistics, technical data, or other information will be supplied upon request.
§ Real Estate. Real estate investments, including real estate investments trusts (“REITS”) and non-traded REITS, involve additional risks not typically associated with other asset classes. Such investments (both through public and private markets) may be subject to changes in broader macroeconomic conditions, such as interest rates, and sensitivities to temporary or permanent reductions in property values for the geographic region(s) represented. Non-traded REITS may carry a higher risk of illiquidity, incomplete or nontransparent valuations, dilution of shares, and conflicts of interest.
§ Structured Investments. Structured investments are complex and investors assume the credit risk of the issuer or guarantor. If the issuer or guarantor defaults, you may lose your entire investment, even if you hold the product to maturity. Structured investments often perform differently from the asset(s) they reference. Credit ratings may pertain to the credit rating of the issuer and are not indicative of the market risk associated with the structured investment or the reference asset. Each structured investment is different, and for each investment you should consider 1) the possibility that at expiration you may be forced to own the reference asset at a depressed price; 2) limits on the ability to share in upside appreciation; 3) the potential for increased losses if the reference asset declines; and 4) potential inability to sell given the lack of a public trading market.
§ Tactical Tilts. Tactical tilts may involve a high degree of risk. No assurance can be made that profits will be achieved or that substantial losses will not be incurred. For various reasons, GS may implement a tactical tilt, invest in an affiliated fund that may invest in tactical tilts, or unwind a position for its client advisory accounts or on its own behalf before your advisor does on behalf of your account, or may implement a tactical tilt that is different from the tactical tilt implemented by advisors on client accounts, which could have an adverse effect on your account and may result in poorer performance by your account than by GS or other client accounts.
§ U.S. Registered Mutual Funds / Exchange Traded Funds (“ETFs”) or Exchange Traded Notes (“ETNs”). You should consider a fund’s investment objectives, risks, and costs, and read the summary prospectus and/or the Prospectus (which may be obtained from your PWM Team) carefully before investing. You may obtain documents for ETFs or ETNs for free by 1) visiting EDGAR on the SEC website at http://www.sec.gov/; 2) contacting your PWM Team; or 3) calling toll-free at 1-866-471-2526. Unlike traditional mutual funds, ETFs can trade at a discount or premium to the net asset value and are not directly redeemable by the fund. Leveraged or inverse ETFs, ETNs, or commodities futures-linked ETFs may experience greater price movements than traditional ETFs and may not be appropriate for all investors. Most leveraged and inverse ETFs or ETNs seek to deliver multiples of the performance (or the inverse of the performance) of the underlying index or benchmark on a daily basis. Their performance over a longer period of time can vary significantly from the stated daily performance objectives or the underlying benchmark or index due to the effects of compounding. Performance differences may be magnified in a volatile market. Commodities futures-linked ETFs may perform differently than the spot price for the commodity itself, including due to the entering into and liquidating of futures or swap contracts on a continuous basis to maintain exposure (i.e., “rolling”) and disparities between near term future prices and long-term future prices for the underlying commodity. You should not assume that a commodity-futures linked ETF will provide an effective hedge against other risks in your portfolio.
Security-Specific References. References to a specific company or security are intended solely as examples or for context and are not research or investment advice; do not rely upon them in making an investment decision. GS may have a relationship with such companies and/or its securities that may present conflicts of interest. Contact your PWM Team for further information on any securities mentioned.
Off-Platform Investments. If you ask us for guidance on external investment opportunities not offered by GS, any information we may provide is as an accommodation only and we will not be acting as your advisor. We assume no obligation to determine whether the opportunity is suitable for you in connection with such investment decisions and will not assume any liability for such investment decisions. Our Form ADV has information on conflicts of interest we may have in connection with any such requests.
ISG/GIR Forecasts. Economic and market forecasts presented (“forecasts”) generally reflect either ISG’s or GIR’s views and are subject to change without notice. Forecasts do not consider investment objectives, restrictions, tax and financial situations or other needs of any specific client. Forecasts are subject to high levels of uncertainty that may affect actual performance and represents only one of a broad range of possible outcomes. Forecasts and any return expectations are as of the date of this material, and do not project returns of any given investment or strategy. Forecasts are estimated, based on capital market assumptions, and are subject to significant revision and may change materially as economic and market conditions change. Any case studies and examples are for illustrative purposes only. If applicable, a copy of the GIR Report used for GIR forecasts is available upon request. Forecasts do not reflect advisory fees, transaction costs, and other expenses a client would have paid, which would reduce return.
Client Specific Markets. Investments held in your name with a subcustodian in the local market where traded in order to comply with local law will be indicated on your statements.
Performance / Estimated Income / Estimated Cash Flow. Past performance is not a guide of future results and may include investments no longer owned in current or closed accounts. Current performance may be lower or higher than the performance data quoted. Where not relevant or representative, outliers may be excluded. To request the most current or historical performance data, or asset classification schema information, please contact your PWM team at the number provided on your monthly statement or toll-free in the U.S. at 1-800-323-5678.
Performance reports, where shown, generally present the relevant time weighted performance, which is a combination of daily returns compounded over a specified time period with the removal of the deposit and withdrawal impacts, and may show internal rate of return calculations where requested. Aggregate performance may not equal the sum of returns at an investment level. Where performance is shown net of fees, actual fees may differ. Net performance for advisory accounts is calculated net of fees and expenses that were or would have been paid in connection with GS’s services, including management fees, and might include investments for which actual market prices are not currently available. If included, estimated income figures and estimated private equity future cash flows are estimates of future activity, and actual results may vary substantially. GS&Co. has adjusted performance calculations for certain asset classes or strategies and may do so in the future. Performance of net cash (i.e., cash less margin debit) is generally included in the total performance calculation but not displayed separately. Option performance is included in the performance of the asset class of the underlier.
Offer to Provide Additional Performance Information. Where GS provides you with the results of a subset of investments extracted from a portfolio (“extracted performance”), you may request the performance results of the total portfolio. Where GS provides you with illustrative performance regarding private fund investments that was not actually achieved by GS (“hypothetical performance”), you may request additional information regarding the risks and limitations of using such performance.
Indices / Benchmarks. References to indices, benchmarks, or other measures of relative market performance over a specified period are informational only and are not predictions or guarantees of performance. In addition to the benchmark assigned to a specific investment strategy, other benchmarks (“Comparative Benchmarks”) may be displayed, including ones displayed at your request. Managers may not review the performance of your account against the performance of Comparative Benchmarks. Where a benchmark for a strategy has changed, the historical benchmark(s) are available upon request. Inception to date (“ITD”) returns and benchmark/reference portfolio returns may reflect different periods. ITD returns for accounts or asset classes only reflect performance during periods in which your account(s) held assets and/or were invested in the asset class. The benchmark or reference portfolio returns shown reflect the benchmark / portfolio performance from the date of inception of your account or your initial investment in the asset class. If displayed, estimated income figures are estimates of future activity obtained from third party sources.
Indices are unmanaged and investors cannot directly invest in them. The figures for the index reflect the reinvestment of all income or dividends, as applicable, but may not always reflect the deduction of any fees or expenses which would reduce returns. Where appropriate, relevant index trademarks or index information has been licensed or sub-licensed for use. Inclusion of index information does not mean the relevant index or its affiliated entities sponsor, endorse, sell, or promote the referenced securities, or that they make any representation or warranty regarding either the advisability of investing in securities or the ability of the index to track market performance.
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Not a Municipal Advisor. Except where GS expressly agrees otherwise, GS is not acting as a municipal advisor and the opinions or views contained in this presentation are not intended to be, and do not constitute, advice, including within the meaning of Section 15B of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934.
Additional Information for Ayco Clients. Your GS team may include individuals from your Ayco team. Ayco may provide tax advice or other Ayco Family Office Services to certain clients. Ayco does not provide brokerage services. As part of its financial counseling services, Ayco may provide you with certain reports where similar information contained herein is presented differently. You should view each report independently and raise any questions with your Ayco team.
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